Fish Entrainment Risk Assessment (FERA) 

• Funded by ESRI, applied at Duke’s Bad Creek Pumped Storage and many other hydros east of Mississippi River 

• Utilizes our open-source software stryke (https://github.com/knebiolo/stryke) 

• The software uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate entrainment impacts at hydroelectric facilities  

• The rest of the methodology assesses population risk using published growth rates and traditional population models.   

• We used Duke’s population data (late 2010’s) and entrainment data collected in the early 90’s to determine if impacts from the pumped storage facility were sustainable, even after capacity is increased through upgrades.   

• While impact in some years would result in population loss, population growth in normal years is more than enough to compensate for those losses.  We determined that that the facility is under Maximum Sustainable Entrainment for the lake.   

• Gave presentations to regional AFS, select group of USFWS regulators, EPRI members, Ontario Waterpower Association, and Electricity Canada.   

• Canadian presentations were to inform them of entrainment risks and risk assessments as they begin to regulate entrainment in Canada.   

Emergent – Agent-Based Model Software 

• An agent-based model is a simulation framework that consists of individual autonomous software objects called agents.  

• Each agent is goal directed, can interact with other agents, and respond to environmental stimuli.   

• Agents abide by simple behavioral rules, such as do not collide with other agents, rest after getting tired, and keep swimming upstream until it crosses the finish line. 

• These simple behavioral rules and chaotic interaction combine to form emergent properties of interest to regulators.   

• In the case of our ABM, emergent properties of interest were passage routes, passage efficiency, and density dependent delay. 

• ABMs are particularly suitable for studying complex systems – aka schooling fish. 

• It is my hypothesis that fish passage efficiency can be improved if we design with the school in mind.  Fish passage is designed with a target species and population in mind.  So it is large enough to pass a population of fish, but getting a school of fish to enter and use a structure is another story 

• We could use ABMs to simulate passage efficiency before a structure is constructed, allowing us to optimize for the specie(s) of interest.   

• The software is open source: (https://github.com/knebiolo/emergent)  

• The methodology is currently being applied at the proposed Nuyakuk Falls Hydroelectric Project and I am giving a presentation at AFS.